Studies carried out by Tendência Consultorias and MB Associados pointed to an increase in poverty and misery in Brazil. Tendência’s research showed that more than half of the population is in classes D and E, with a maximum of R$ 2,900 in household income. The perception of poverty worsened from last year to this year in 14 of the 15 capitals evaluated by the MB.
The short-term prognosis is also negative, as the economic recovery tends to favor first the upper classes of the population, which are only 2.8% of the country, while the income mobility of 50.7% of classes D and E should be reduced in the coming years.
The less favored population is directly affected by social policies and programs, while the middle class is more dependent on their salary, with only the richest who can count on greater participation from other sources of income, such as interest, profits and rent. With the rise in the economy’s basic interest rate, the Selic, the income of Class A households should benefit.
Tendência Consultorias considered the current policy regarding the minimum wage, adjusted only for inflation, until 2026 to formulate the projections, and from 2027 onwards it started to take into account, in addition to the inflation adjustment, the growth of GDP per capita. As the minimum wage is a reference even for those who do not have a formal job, it was possible to assess the economic and social projections for the coming years.
When calculating how much essential items weighed on families’ pockets, the impact of inequality became clear. While the richest used 48.6% of earnings for essential items, the upper middle class used 61.5%, the lower middle class, 71.2%, and the poorest, 78.6%.
The study also showed that retail sales in regions most assisted by social protection measures, especially the North, grew with Auxílio Brasil. Following this trend, sales of basic needs, such as products from supermarkets and pharmacies, should grow.
However, the year 2022 should be marked by economic uncertainty, which poses risks to the consumption scenario. This is due to both internal events, with an emphasis on the presidential election, and external events, with the context of the pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Perception of misery advances in Brazil
The study by MB Associates also showed that the perception of misery grew in almost all the capitals included in the research. The index takes into account aspects such as the unemployment rate and inflation.
The results especially pointed to the loss of the population’s purchasing power, which would harm the economic recovery, with the domestic market not keeping warm.
The average of poverty perception indices in Brazil is 22.6 points, higher than that recorded in the same period last year.
The capitals with the worst performance were Salvador, Recife and Aracaju. The best indices are in the capitals of more industrialized states, but with indicators that worsened during the year. Despite the lower unemployment, Curitiba and Porto Alegre, the best in the country, had the perception of misery increased due to the rise in inflation.
