This Monday (25), Elon Musk, owner of Tesla and SpaceX, announced that he had reached an agreement for the purchase of Twitter for US$ 44 billion (about R$ 218 billion). The billionaire has already stated that he intends to make important changes to the social network, such as reducing the level of moderation of content published on the platform and taking the company private.
For that, Musk will pay US$ 54.20 per share, a premium of 4.83% over the share value on the Nasdaq technology exchange last Monday (US$ 51.70).
But what happens to investor stocks if Twitter stops circulating on the American Stock Exchange? And for those who own the BDRs (stock receipts) of the social network at brokerage firms in Brazil? See what analysts say and what steps to take.
Paper should not keep high
Richard Camargo, analyst at Empiricus Research, says that despite the 5.66% rise in Twitter shares on Monday, this movement is not expected to continue in the coming weeks. With a positive signal from shareholders for Musk’s offer, the $54.20 price acts as a kind of cap on the asset’s value. Shares and BDRs were already low on Tuesday (26).
“If you don’t have it, you shouldn’t buy it. On the screen, there is about 4.5% upside (upside potential) for the price offered by Musk. agreement—, he does not see any alternative capable of offering higher returns than this one”, says Camargo.
Other experts share the same opinion. Partner and analyst at analyst firm Nord Research, Cesar Crivelli, says that in addition to the delisting, Twitter’s latest quarterly results were not positive and there is greater regulatory pressure in the United States and Europe on content platforms.
Anyone who doesn’t own Twitter shares shouldn’t buy. As the stock has gone up, the investor doesn’t have much to gain.
Cesar Crivelli, partner and analyst at Nord Research
Crivelli also states that, as time passes and the documents are signed for the conclusion of the deal, the tendency is for the stock exchange price to stick to the price offered by Musk and close the 5% difference.
I have Twitter shares and/or BDRs: now what?
According to Cesar Crivelli, from Nord, each investor who owns shares must analyze their case in particular. After approval by regulatory authorities and completion of the deal, the company must set the date for an auction to repurchase the shares.
The idea is for investors to sell the assets, as there will be no more trading on the market. Therefore, the question is when is the best time to dispose of the asset.
Avenue Securities analyst Guilherme Zanin says investors who own shares must hold them until the transaction between the company and the billionaire is completed. Thus, they can get the maximum value at the time of repurchase.
“There may be some correction in the short term, if any news makes the trade difficult. On the other hand, it should not rise much above US$ 54.20. On the contrary, it should always stay below, trading with a slight premium”, says Zanin.
For those who hold Twitter BDRs (Brazilian Depositary Receipts), a kind of certificates that are offered by Brazilian brokerages and simulate the actions of companies abroad, the orientation is also for the sale.
Once the shares are canceled abroad, the BDRs will also be canceled in Brazil. It is necessary to check how the financial institution will carry out the process, which must also be an auction on the last day to cancel receipts in Brazil.
Cesar Crivelli, from the North
The Nord Research expert states that, just as the payment of dividends from BDRs takes longer to reach the Brazilian investor’s account, the same delay should happen with the delisting of Twitter.
“The institution will sell the shares abroad and pass this money on to those who have the BDRs here”, he says.