The Market Focus Report released this Tuesday morning (26) brought an increase in the median forecast for the expansion of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for 2022, which went from 0.56% to 0.65% in the last week. A month ago, the estimate was 0.50%. Considering only the 61 responses in the last five working days, the estimate for GDP at the end of 2022 went from 0.69% to 0.70%.
Focus was updated this Tuesday after more than three weeks without disclosure due to the strike by Central Bank servers, which was suspended until May 2. In the document with the reference date of April 1, the median for this year’s GDP was 0.52%, rising to 0.53% in the April 8 report and 0.56% in the April 14 report.
For 2023, the median dropped from 1.12% to 1.00% in the last week, from 1.30% four weeks ago. The projection for 2023 GDP has been decreasing in the latest surveys: it was 1.30% on April 1st, 1.25% on April 8th and 1.12% on April 14th.
The Focus Report also brought the medians for 2024 and 2025 GDP, which remained at 2.00%. Estimates are held at 19 weeks and 24 weeks, respectively.
Debt/GDP ratio
The Market Focus Report also showed that the projection for the indicator that measures the ratio between net public sector debt and GDP for 2022 remained at 60.50% in the last week, compared to 60.30% a month ago.
The document also brought a change in the ratio between the primary deficit and this year’s GDP, from 0.50% to 0.45%. A month ago, the percentage was at 0.50%. The ratio between nominal deficit and GDP in 2022 ranged from 7.55% to 7.50%, compared to 7.50% four weeks earlier.
In relation to 2023, the estimate for net debt in relation to GDP rose from 63.78% to 64.10%, from 63.50% a month ago. The median for the primary deficit remained at 0.50% of GDP, and for the nominal gap it went from 7.50% to 7.30%. The percentages were 0.50% and 7.20%, respectively, four weeks ago.
The primary balance reflects the balance between government revenue and expenditure, before interest payments on the public debt. The nominal result reflects the balance after interest expenses.
previous weeks
In the document with the reference date of April 1, the median for the ratio between net debt and GDP in 2022 was 60.40% and in 2023, 63.55%. For the primary deficit in relation to GDP, the expectation on that date was 0.50% for 2022 and 0.50% for next year. The median for the nominal deficit was 7.50% this year and 7.20% the next.
In the report for April 8, the median for the ratio between net debt and GDP in 2022 was 60.50% and in 2023, 63.78%. For the primary deficit in relation to GDP, the expectation on that date was also 0.50% for 2022 and 0.50% for next year. The median for the nominal deficit was 7.55% this year and 7.50% the next.
In the survey with a reference date of April 15, the median for the ratio between net debt and GDP in 2022 was 60.50% and in 2023, 63.78%. Likewise, for the primary deficit in relation to GDP, the expectation on that date was 0.50% for 2022 and 0.50% for next year. Also unchanged that week, the median for the nominal deficit was 7.55% this year and 7.50% next.
Trade surplus
Financial market economists kept their 2022 trade surplus estimate at $69.75 billion last week, up from $65.00 billion a month ago, according to the Focus survey. For 2023, it went from US$ 58.00 billion to R$ 60.00 billion, compared to US$ 51.00 billion four weeks earlier.
In the case of the projected deficit in the current account of the balance of payments in 2022, it ranged from US$ 13.20 billion to US$ 12.00 billion. It was at $20.60 billion a month ago. In 2023, the expectation for the current account gap went from US$ 29.60 billion to US$ 29.20 billion. A month ago, it was US$ 33.70 billion.
For analysts consulted weekly by the BC, the inflow of Direct Investment in the Country (IDP) will be enough to cover the deficit result in these years. The median forecast for the 2022 IDP remained at $59.00 billion last week, up from $59.00 billion a month ago. For 2023, it went from US$ 69.00 billion to US$ 67.30 billion, compared to US$ 69.00 billion four weeks earlier.
previous weeks
In the document with the reference date of April 1, the median for the trade surplus in 2022 was US$ 69.50 billion and in 2023, US$ 58.00 billion. For the current account deficit, the expectation on that date was US$ 15.85 billion for 2022 and US$ 28.80 billion for next year. The median for IDP was US$ 59.00 billion this year and US$ 69.00 billion the next.
In the April 8 report, the median trade surplus in 2022 was US$69.75 billion and in 2023, US$58.00 billion. For the current account deficit, the expectation on that date was US$ 16.05 billion for 2022 and US$ 29.80 billion for next year. The median for IDP was US$ 58.50 billion this year and US$ 67.00 billion the next.
In the survey with a reference date of April 15, the median for the trade surplus in 2022 was US$ 69.75 billion and in 2023, US$ 58.00 billion. For the current account deficit, the expectation on that date was US$ 13.20 billion for 2022 and US$ 29.60 billion for next year. The median for IDP was US$ 59.00 billion this year and US$ 69.00 billion the next.
