The median for the IPCA, the official inflation index, for 2022 jumped from 7.46% to 7.65% in the last week, according to the Market Focus Report. The percentage is far from the ceiling of this year’s target (5.0%), indicating a new failure to comply with the main mandate of the BC (Central Bank). A month ago, the median for the IPCA was 6.86%.
For 2023, the main focus of monetary policy, the increase in the last week was from 3.91% to 4.00%, moving further and further away from the BC’s objective for next year, of 3.25%, with a margin of tolerance of 1.75% to 4.75%. Four weeks ago, the projection was 3.80%.
Considering the 96 changes in the last five working days, the median for 2022 also rose, from 7.51% to 7.72%. For 2023, the 94 changes made in the last five business days reduced the median estimate from 4.05 to 4.00%.
Server strike and delay in economic data
Focus was updated this Tuesday morning (26) after more than three weeks without disclosure due to the strike by Central Bank servers, which was suspended until May 2.
In the document with the reference date of April 1st, the median for the IPCA 2022 was at 6.97%, jumping to 7.43% in the April 8th report and oscillating to 7.46% on the 15th. For 2023 , the forecast in the 1st report was 3.80%, going to 3.89% on April 8th and reaching 3.91% on April 15th.
In relation to the median for 2024, the increase in the last week was from 3.16% to 3.20%, from 3.20% a month earlier. The previous medians were 3.12% (April 1st), 3.20% (4/8) and 3.16% (4/15). The forecast for 2025 remained at 3.00%, the same percentage as in all previous weeks and one month ago.
The target for 2024 is 3.00%, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points (from 1.5% to 4.5%). For 2025, in turn, the target has not yet been defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN).
In the March Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) communiqué, the BC updated its inflation forecasts with estimates of 7.1% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023. Given the volatility in the oil market caused by the war in Ukraine , the collegiate also created an alternative scenario, with greater probability, in which the forecasts would be at 6.3% and 3.1%, respectively. The collegiate raised the Selic by 1.5 percentage points, to 11.75% per year.
Financial market economists raised the IPCA forecast for April from 0.87% to 0.90% in the last week. A month earlier, the projected percentage was 0.91%. In previous weeks, the median for the April IPCA was 0.95% (April 1st), 0.90% (4/8) and 0.87% (4/14).
For May, the forecast in Focus accelerated from a high of 0.05% to 0.20%, compared to deflation of 0.21% four weeks ago. In previous weeks, the median for the May IPCA was -0.20% (April 1st), -0.14% (4/8) and 0.05% (4/14).
The report also brought the estimate for the IPCA for June, which went from 0.39% to 0.40%, the same percentage as a month ago. In previous weeks, the median for the June IPCA was 0.40% (April 1st), 0.39% (4/8) and 0.39% (4/14).
Smoothed inflation for the next 12 months rose from a high of 5.37% to 5.52% from one week to another – a month ago, it was at 5.76%. In previous weeks, the median for smoothed inflation for the next 12 months was 5.59% (April 1), 5.43% (4/8) and 5.37% (4/14).