The perfect time has come to invest in the Selic Treasury. This has always been the safest investment in Brazil, but now, in addition to all the security, it is also the one with the highest profitability there at Treasury Direct. In this article, I will translate this golden opportunity to make this investment, as I also show in the video below.
On the day I write this article and recorded the video above, these were the rates of return on Treasury applications:
Fixed-rate Treasury: guaranteed returns between 11.6% and 11.9% per year for those who remain until maturity.Treasury IPCA: yields from IPCA (Brazil’s official inflation) plus bonuses between 5.2% and 5, 8% per annum.Selic Treasury: Selic yield plus bonuses between 0.07% and 0.18% per annum.
It turns out that, when investing today in any of these opportunities, its profitability at the end of the first year (as well as the following periods) will depend on the inflation measured by the IPCA and the Selic in force in the period.
There it is! According to the most recent Focus Bulletin, the Selic rate is expected to end the year 2022 at at least 13% and fall to 9% by the end of 2023.
Although the profitability of this investment takes into account the rates in force in each period (it can change every 45 days), the inflation measured by the IPCA, which today has already exceeded 10% and benefited those who invested in the IPCA Treasury in the last year, must close 2022 below 7% and still fall further next year, below 4%.
This means that, if these projections are correct, the IPCA Treasury will yield between 9% and 12% per year, which in the best case scenario is close, but still below the Selic Treasury.
And the Selic Treasury still looks like it will beat the Fixed Rate Treasury at current rates. So, if you haven’t set up your emergency reserve yet, this is the perfect opportunity to stop making excuses and start investing with excellent returns.
But watch out! This is not to say that this application is the most advantageous under any circumstances.
Although the Selic Treasury has this advantage in the short term, the Selic should fall again in the following years. As this is a floating rate investment, profitability will also tend to be lower in the following periods, despite being very good today.
On the contrary, when investing in a Fixed Rate Treasury, which today seems disadvantageous, it will guarantee the same return until 2029 or 2033 (which are the longest maturities available), even when the Selic returns to lower levels.
So the choice will depend on your goals.
Another caveat is necessary: a large part of the Central Bank’s servers were on strike while I recorded the video above, so the Focus Bulletin was out of date and the projections used too.
Which broker to choose to invest in 2022?
Did you know that there are more than 100 brokers in Brazil and not all of them are nice to customers? Some charge additional fees even for you to invest in the Treasury.
I separated the ten best brokers to invest in 2022. All are zero rate to invest in the Treasury, they are safe and very well evaluated by investors. I show you what they are in the video below.
I also have news: Econoweek is running for the iBest award in the Economy and Investment categories. If you think our content is cool, you can contribute your vote.
