Behind in the voting intention polls, President Jair Bolsonaro is expanding the package of economic measures with an electoral bias, which already hangs an invoice of at least R$82 billion for the next president-elect. It is an additional expenditure that makes it difficult for public agencies and government programs to function without a change in the spending cap rule, which limits expenditure growth to the previous year’s inflation rate.
The cost of the package, which includes increased spending and tax cuts, should rise even further and put pressure on public accounts in the first months of the next government.
Bolsonaro gave the password to the problem when he said, on Friday, during an interview with a radio station in Mato Grosso, that he should review the spending cap rule after the elections. In addition to Bolsonaro, the other two pre-candidates for the presidency best placed in the polls, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Ciro Gomes (PDT), also defend the amendment of the law.
On the expenditure side, the next government will have to deal with an additional cost of R$41 billion from Auxílio Brasil, the president’s branded social program, with a permanent minimum payment of R$400. Another R$ 1.9 billion goes into the account for the gas voucher aid, already approved. The value may be higher, depending on the number of families served and the price of the cylinder. The president will also promote a 5% readjustment to the salaries of civil servants at a cost of R$ 12 billion next year.
On the revenue side, the government has already abdicated R$ 27.4 billion in revenue next year with the 35% reduction in the Tax on Industrialized Products (IPI) rate, without taking into account other tax benefits smaller than the president. is promoting, for example, the exemption until 2025 for the purchase of taxi.
An experienced member of the economic area of the Ministry of Economy, a specialist in Budget, who spoke on condition of anonymity, believes that the president himself, by agreeing to increase the annual expenses with Auxílio Brasil by R$ 41 billion, is making the ceiling unfeasible. next government spending. In this way, he pointed out, Bolsonaro, if he is not re-elected, could not blame the next president for removing the ceiling.
The Ministry of Economy’s assessment so far is that the transformation of the Auxílio Brasil of R$ 400 into a permanent benefit will not require compensation to comply with the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF). Sought, the ministry said that, based on still informal and preliminary conversations on the subject, the understanding is that it is not necessary. The information is from the newspaper. The State of São Paulo.