Eight years ago, on Labor Day, the front page of Estadão printed the news: “On TV, Dilma announces correction of the Income Tax table”. The day before, the president, who at the time was falling in the polls and six months later would run for and win reelection, took advantage of May 1 to announce measures such as the correction of the income tax table by 4 .5% and the 10% readjustment of Bolsa Família for the 36 million beneficiaries.
It was one of many measures that the PT government was promoting with the support of the economic team to win the sympathy of the electorate and win the election. Dilma ended up assuming her second term the following year in a scenario of worsening public accounts and economic activity.
Almost a decade later, President Bolsonaro beckons with the readjustment of the IR table, a measure that does not need compensation and can be adopted at any time. The correction, promised during the election campaign, is expected.
A correction of the exemption range from the current BRL 1,900 to BRL 2,900 should cost around BRL 20 billion in lost revenue. If Bolsonaro wanted to fulfill his promise to correct the range to R$5,000, as he signaled in 2018, the cost for the collection would be R$65 billion.
Pressured by allies in the agricultural sector, the president is also expected to increase the subsidy for agricultural credit in 2022 and in the 2023 Budget as a result of higher interest rates.
The renewal of credit lines for micro and small companies granted in the pandemic, such as those of Pronampe, although they do not involve direct resources, require a greater rollover of the public debt, since the resources that will serve as guarantee of the old lines will no longer return to Treasury coffers as scheduled.
For Marcelo Bresser Pereira, founding partner of EST Gestora de Patrimônios, it is a tendency for governments to use the “pen” to seek reelection. “There are governments that do this more, and others less,” he said. “And then, when the government is less responsible, it makes it very difficult because it harms the fiscal side, which is an Achilles heel of ours.”
In his opinion, Brazil will end up not taking advantage of the increase in commodity prices (basic export products, such as soybeans and iron ore), which also occurred during the Lula administration, and when it ends, growth will continue to be low. The information is from the newspaper. The State of São Paulo.
