The war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the economy of almost the entire world, and Brazil is feeling the effects here as well. But is there any more recommended application in this scenario where the conflict continues? No Chat with Specialist, live program from UOLeconomist César Esperandio explains how the conflict impacts fixed income and variable income.
Read his explanation and watch the program excerpt below. Chat with Specialist is a question-answer about investments exclusively for subscribers and is broadcast fortnightly, on Thursdays, from 3 pm to 4 pm.
War brings more inflation
For Esperandio, the first major effect of the war is an additional problem of global logistics. “This was already happening because of the covid-19 pandemic. Items started to be lacking in several production chains. There is more demand, that is, more people wanting to buy than supply, hence prices go up”, he says.
In the war, there was also the problem of commodities (non-industrialized basic products, such as oil and grains, among others).
“As Russia and Ukraine are major grain producers, with the war, there is a decrease in the supply of food products. And this has led to a rise in prices”, says he, who is also from the Econoweek channel.
High Selic may favor fixed income
The economist says that, to contain the rise in inflation here in Brazil, the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) has raised the basic interest rate (Selic).
“Does this mean that the high Selic rate may favor fixed income? Yes. Thinking in nominal terms, discounting inflation, it may favor fixed income. However, it is not possible to claim that this is the best investment in this war scenario”, he declares. .
Is it worth taking advantage of small opportunities on the stock market?
According to him, in variable income, companies in some sectors were favored because commodities became more expensive – consequently, the revenue of these companies rose, and the shares ended up rising together.
“But this will pass. If you are thinking of medium and long-term investment, it is not taking advantage of small opportunities that you will change your financial reality”, he says.
He says that it is necessary to start thinking about building an investment portfolio looking at the medium and long term, with the objective of generating dividends with their profitability, in the future.
Chat with Specialist is fortnightly
The program Chat with Specialist is broadcast on Thursdays, fortnightly, from 3 pm to 4 pm, on the home page of UOL, at UOL Economia and UOL Investimentos, and is exclusive to subscribers. Review past programs here.
You can send questions to Papo by e-mail [email protected] —they can be answered in the program.
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