This is the online version of today’s edition of the Inside the Stock Exchange newsletter, which shows how global stock exchanges are reacting to the risk of recession in the United States and around the world. To subscribe to this and other newsletters and receive them directly in your email, register here. UOL subscribers are also entitled to two more exclusive newsletters about investments.
The world’s main stock exchanges operate in decline this Wednesday (29), while investors monitor the speeches of central bank authorities in the United States and Europe.
Given the persistence of inflation, which in the US has already risen by 8.6% in the last 12 months, an increasingly incisive response from central banks is expected, in the form of higher interest rates and withdrawal of stimuli.
Currently, the US base interest rate is between 1.50% and 1.75% per year, and is expected to rise at a rate of 0.50 percentage point at each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, the US Monetary Policy Committee) in the coming months.
This means that the period of extremely high liquidity in global markets is over, at least for now, and this has been observed in the flight of capital from riskier markets, such as technology stocks or crypto-assets, towards assets considered safer, such as the fixed income.
In the case of Brazil, fixed income becomes even more attractive, since the Selic is at 13.25% per year, and should rise even more, causing real interest, that is, the discounted interest rate inflation, is one of the highest on the planet.
In the short term, global markets are likely to experience strong swings, while it is uncertain whether the United States — or even the global economy — will enter recession.
Read on ‘Investigando o Mercado’ (exclusively for UOL subscribers, who have full access to the content of UOL Investimentos): information on the resumption of the divestment plan by Petrobras.
Levante’s Chief Strategist and Founding Partner
IN THE NEWSLETTER THE COMPANY
The newsletter The Company analyzes whether it is worth investing in Braskem, the company chosen by Matheus Jaconeli and Bruna Sene, analysts at Nova Futura Investimentos. The company is one of the largest global producers of petrochemicals. To register and receive the weekly newsletter, click here.
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