The Ministry of Mines and Energy predicts a reduction of up to 20.9% in the average price of gasoline for consumers, in the best possible scenario with the fuel exemption measures still in progress, although states contest the actions due to the loss of revenue. with ICMS.
The figures were presented this Thursday by the Ministry’s Secretary of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, Rafael Bastos, during a public hearing in the Chamber of Deputies on the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution 15/2022, which aims to maintain the competitiveness of biofuels.
In the best estimate, of almost 21% reduction, the average price of a liter of gasoline would go from 7.39 reais to 5.84 reais, based on the most recent survey by the regulator ANP.
This scenario considers both the effects of Complementary Law 194/2022, sanctioned last week by President Jair Bolsonaro, and a decision by the Federal Supreme Court regarding the Direct Action of Unconstitutionality (ADI) 7191 that is favorable to the federal government.
That is, contrary to Agreement 16/2022, signed by the States in March, which did not discipline the single-phase ICMS and ad rem for fuel.
Without a favorable decision by the Court to the Executive’s argument, the ministry’s estimate is that the fall in prices will be smaller, up to 17.6%.
This price relief would contemplate the limitation of ICMS and the total withdrawal of federal taxes, established by Complementary Law 194.
If PEC 15 is approved, however, as it provides for changes in taxation to keep biofuels competitive against gasoline, the reduction in fossil fuel prices would be even smaller, up to 14.9%.
For hydrated ethanol, the ministry projects a reduction of up to 6.2% if only Complementary Law 194 is considered, and up to 10.7% if PEC 15/2022 is approved. The STF decision on ADI 7191 does not affect hydrated ethanol.
“PEC 15, which, of course, guarantees the competitive advantage of ethanol, prevents the federal tax, for example, on gasoline from being zeroed, as it is today,” said Bastos.
A recent survey on average fuel prices in June shows that the government’s projections are still far from materializing, since the tax measures were verified at the end of the month.
In June, the average price of diesel at Brazilian gas stations rose by around 10% compared to May, after a readjustment by Petrobras, and became more expensive than gasoline for the first time in more than a decade, according to data from the survey by Petrobras. Ticket Log Price Index (IPTL), released this Thursday. The value of common diesel closed at 7.87 reais/liter.
The average price of a liter of gasoline closed the month of June with an average of 7.56 reais, up 0.23% compared to May, while ethanol was sold at 6 reais at the supply pumps, with a decrease of 1.98%. in price.
The slight increase in the country’s average price occurred despite a reduction in the ICMS on gasoline in São Paulo, the main consumer market, at the end of the month.