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Forecasts have been adjusted: the Chinese will overtake AvtoVAZ in sales in 2023

The NAPI release, published at the end of last year, said that according to the pessimistic scenario, the Chinese will sell 150,000 new cars in Russia in 2023, according to the base – 210,000, and according to the optimistic – 260,000. The new figures, published in mid-May, much higher: 269,600, 295,200 and 319,500 cars, respectively.

It is curious at the same time that in the same December message, NAPI analysts assumed that AVTOVAZ would only achieve 70% of its production plan for 2023 (production of 400,000 vehicles) (according to the baseline scenario). If this is the case, then the Chinese will bypass the domestic auto giant by the end of this year. Even under the impossible condition that LADA dealers will hand over to the buyers all the cars that left the assembly line without exception.

By the way, if you look at the results of sales for the first four months of the year (at the data of the Association of European Businesses), you can see that the “celestial” auto brands are already stepping on the heels of AVTOVAZ. In January-April, LADA sold 91,875 cars, and brands from China in total – about 80,000. It is difficult to say more precisely, since the leader of the Chinese segment, Chery, does not send information to the AEB every month, but once a quarter.

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