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Why Auto Market Experts’ Predictions Almost Never Come True

No one will deny that the car market, like any other sector of the country’s economy, operates according to certain laws. However, this creates the illusion that familiarity with them allows you to actually calculate the future. That is, a logical equal sign is easily put between the model formulated by someone and the reality that must come.

In fact, knowledge of the laws of the car market is nothing more than a data set systematized by someone about the processes that took place in the past. In fact, we take a certain archive of events, identify some patterns among them, and sincerely hope that they will continue in the future. With such a look at “analyzes and forecasts”, their seriousness is already beginning to make me laugh. Why? To answer this question, it is enough to compare the market trends that seemed relevant to us, for example, in 2015, with those that dominated in 2020, and then mentally impose them on the mechanisms that controlled the segment in 2022. Well, how many coincidences?

Yes, now we know that it happens like this, like that, and like that. But how can these data help us form truly reliable estimates of the Russian car market, say, in 2024? Or, with a mathematically acceptable error, predict events on it at least by the end of 2023? It is characteristic that such considerations do not at all prevent domestic auto experts from gushing with their expertise.

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